San Francisco UnicornsversusMI New York

9 Jul 2025 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI New York won by 2 wickets

San Francisco Unicorns19.1 overs131/10 MI New York19.3 overs132/8 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

San Francisco Unicorns started on 59%; San Francisco Unicorns batted first.

San Francisco Unicorns’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

San Francisco Unicorns's chances ranged from 4% to 71% during the match (MI New York: 29% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.5: Hassan Khan to T Luus, T Luus out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 33% to 64%.
2nd inns 18.2: Hassan Khan to TA Boult, six by TA Boult. MI New York up from 45% to 78%.
2nd inns 18.3: Hassan Khan to TA Boult, six by TA Boult. MI New York up from 78% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

San Francisco Unicorns131/10 MI New York132/8

Innings 1