Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots

29 Aug 2024 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots won by 1 wickets

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs163/4 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs164/9 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 53%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · St Kitts and Nevis Patriots is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 5% to 76% during the match (St Kitts and Nevis Patriots: 24% to 95%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.1: RS Primus to DC Drakes, DC Drakes out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 35% to 56%.
2nd inns 19.5: RS Primus to A Nortje, 2 runs to A Nortje. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 50% to 73%.
2nd inns 19.6: RS Primus to A Nortje, 1 run to A Nortje. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 73% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons163/4 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots164/9

Innings 1