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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of Sri Lanka · 2025/26 · Men
27 Jan 2026 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 36%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rehan Ahmedcaught · Jeffrey Vandersay · Wanindu Hasaranga3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jeffrey Vandersay · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 24 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 64.86 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Dunith Wellalage · Dhananjaya de Silva0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Dhananjaya de Silva | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
 Joe Rootnot out9 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 111* | 108 | 9 | 1 | 102.78 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Janith Liyanage · Jeffrey Vandersay 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 65 |
England's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 72 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 90.28 |
 Harry Brooknot out11 fours · 9 sixes | not out | 136* | 66 | 11 | 9 | 206.06 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 77 | 0 | 8.56 | 4 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | 7.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | 7.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 2 | 0 |
1-19 (Ben Duckett, 6.5) · 2-40 (Rehan Ahmed, 10.3) · 3-166 (Jacob Bethell, 31.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 17/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 9 | 16 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 40/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 57/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 62/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 65/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 67/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 69/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 73/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 77/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 83/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 88/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 92/2 |
| 24 | 10 | 102/2 |
| 25 | 9 | 111/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 118/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 125/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 128/2 |
| 29 | 10 | 138/2 |
| 30 | 16 | 154/2 |
| 31 | 12 | 166/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 170/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 173/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 181/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 186/3 |
| 36 | 12 | 198/3 |
| 37 | 6 | 204/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 208/3 |
| 39 | 10 | 218/3 |
| 40 | 9 | 227/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 231/3 |
| 42 | 2 | 233/3 |
| 43 | 13 | 246/3 |
| 44 | 10 | 256/3 |
| 45 | 13 | 269/3 |
| 46 | 16 | 285/3 |
| 47 | 14 | 299/3 |
| 48 | 18 | 317/3 |
| 49 | 22 | 339/3 |
| 50 | 18 | 357/3 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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