Lucknow Super GiantsversusRajasthan Royals

27 Apr 2024 · T20

Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 7 wickets

Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs196/5 Rajasthan Royals19.0 overs199/3 Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lucknow Super Giants started on 50%; Lucknow Super Giants batted first.

Lucknow Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Rajasthan Royals is the rest

Lucknow Super Giants's chances ranged from 1% to 85% during the match (Rajasthan Royals: 15% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.3: TA Boult to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Rajasthan Royals up from 42% to 57%.
2nd inns 5.5: Yash Thakur to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 48% to 60%.
2nd inns 15.6: Ravi Bishnoi to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. Rajasthan Royals up from 64% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lucknow Super Giants196/5 Rajasthan Royals199/3

Innings 1