MaltaversusGibraltar

7 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Malta won by 50 runs

Malta20.0 overs231/4 Gibraltar20.0 overs181/7 Marsa Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malta more likely to win

59%Malta41%Gibraltar

Why

In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Malta won 6 and Gibraltar won 2
Malta are playing at home in Malta
On results in T20 internationals so far, Gibraltar rate stronger than Malta (1,425 vs 1,389 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malta started on 55%; Malta batted first.

Malta’s chance of winning (%) · Gibraltar is the rest

Malta's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Gibraltar: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

0.4: BA Pai to Mohammed Qasim, Mehboob Ali out. Gibraltar up from 41% to 53%.
11.4: J Horrocks to Jaspal Singh, four by Jaspal Singh. Malta up from 76% to 83%.
2nd inns 6.1: P Pushparajan to L Bruce, L Bruce out. Malta up from 71% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malta231/4 Gibraltar181/7

Innings 1

Malta

231/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malta batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammed Qasimcaught · PA Raikes · L Bruce 8 fours · 3 sixes	caught · PA Raikes · b L Bruce	84	60	8	3	140.00
Mehboob Alirun out · PA Raikes · BA Pai 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · PA Raikes	0	0	0	0	—
P Pushparajancaught · IDM Latin · Joe Wilson 4 fours · 4 sixes	caught · IDM Latin · b Joe Wilson	55	26	4	4	211.54
Jaspal Singhrun out · C Pyle, IDM Latin · S Bodha 2 fours · 3 sixes	run out · C Pyle, IDM Latin	39	23	2	3	169.57
Flynn Zahranot out 0 fours · 3 sixes	not out	24*	10	0	3	240.00
Zeeshan Khan

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
BA Pai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	2	0
J Horrocks0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	33	0	16.50	7	0
L Bruce0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	1	10.75	3	0
S Bodha0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	42	0	14.00	3	0
Joe Wilson0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	35	1	11.67	0	1
K Mirpuri0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	5	0
M Whelan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	4	10/1
3	5	15/1
4	12	27/1
5	13	40/1
6	10	50/1
7	13	63/1
8	17	80/1
9	8	88/1
10	9	97/2
11	3	100/2
12	29	129/2
13	10	139/2
14	10	149/2
15	17	166/2
16	14	180/2
17	13	193/2
18	8	201/3
19	14	215/3
20	16	231/4

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