Kolkata Knight RidersversusMumbai Indians

3 May 2024 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kolkata Knight Riders won by 24 runs

Kolkata Knight Riders19.5 overs169/10 Mumbai Indians18.5 overs145/10 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kolkata Knight Riders started on 49%; Kolkata Knight Riders batted first.

Kolkata Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Kolkata Knight Riders's chances ranged from 14% to 99% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 1% to 86%).

Biggest swings

4.2: HH Pandya to SP Narine, SP Narine out. Mumbai Indians up from 62% to 78%.
2nd inns 5.5: SP Narine to RG Sharma, RG Sharma out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 48% to 64%.
2nd inns 8.4: CV Varun to Tilak Varma, Tilak Varma out. Kolkata Knight Riders up from 61% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kolkata Knight Riders169/10 Mumbai Indians145/10

Innings 1