PakistanversusAustralia

1 Feb 2026 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 111 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs207/6 Australia16.5 overs96/9 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Pakistan48%Australia

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 7 and Pakistan won 3
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Australia (1,730 vs 1,705 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 52%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

1.5: MW Short to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. Australia up from 41% to 54%.
3.4: BJ Dwarshuis to Agha Salman, Agha Salman out. Australia up from 43% to 55%.
2nd inns 0.4: Shaheen Shah Afridi to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. Pakistan up from 76% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan207/6 Australia96/9

Innings 1

Pakistan

207/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Fakhar Zamancaught · Cameron Green · Matthew Short 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Cameron Green · b Matthew Short	10	7	2	0	142.86
Saim Ayubcaught · Matt Renshaw · Matthew Kuhnemann 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Matt Renshaw · b Matthew Kuhnemann	56	37	6	2	151.35
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Cameron Green · Ben Dwarshuis 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Cameron Green · b Ben Dwarshuis	5	3	1	0	166.67
Mohammad Babar Azamnot out 3 fours · 1 sixes	not out	50*	36	3	1	138.89

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Matthew Kuhnemann0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0	1
Matthew Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	1	10.33	0	0
Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	1	11.75	0	0
Ben Dwarshuis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	2	9.75	0	0
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	0	0
Cameron Green0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	43	1	14.33	2	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	5	18/1
3	13	31/1
4	8	39/2
5	4	43/2
6	12	55/2
7	14	69/2
8	11	80/2
9	9	89/2
10	8	97/2
11	6	103/2
12	4	107/3
13	14	121/3
14	10	131/4
15	6	137/4
16	14	151/4
17	9	160/4
18	15	175/4
19	14	189/5
20	18	207/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.