**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusSunrisers Eastern Cape

25 Jan 2024 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 3 runs

Pretoria Capitals18.3 overs125/10 Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs122/9 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 45%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Sunrisers Eastern Cape is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 9% to 99% during the match (Sunrisers Eastern Cape: 2% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.4: AU Rashid to T Stubbs, T Stubbs out. Pretoria Capitals up from 57% to 79%.
2nd inns 19.4: DM Dupavillon to LA Dawson, six by LA Dawson. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 7% to 41%.
2nd inns 19.6: DM Dupavillon to LA Dawson, 0 runs to LA Dawson. Pretoria Capitals up from 71% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals125/10 Sunrisers Eastern Cape122/9

Innings 1