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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
21 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 69%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittbowled · Abhishek Paradkar 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Abhishek Paradkar | 33 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 86.84 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Milind Kumar · Shadley van Schalkwyk 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 77 | 126 | 6 | 0 | 61.11 |
| Vikramjit Singhcaught · Nosthush Kenjige · Milind Kumar 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nosthush Kenjige · b Milind Kumar | 18 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Musa Ahmedbowled · Steven Taylor 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Steven Taylor | 6 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Scott Edwardscaught · Smit Patel · J Drysdale 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b J Drysdale | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 36% to 98% during the match (United States of America: 2% to 64%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Noah Croescaught · Aaron Jones · Harmeet Singh 4 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Aaron Jones · b Harmeet Singh |
| 27 |
| 33 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 81.82 |
| Kyle Kleincaught · Smit Patel · Harmeet Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b Harmeet Singh | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttcaught · Harmeet Singh · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harmeet Singh · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 47.62 |
|---|
| Clayton Floydlbw · Nosthush Kenjige 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nosthush Kenjige | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Paul van Meekerennot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Vivian Kingmacaught · Shayan Jahangir · Nosthush Kenjige 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Nosthush Kenjige | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 4.04 | 1 | 0 |
| J Drysdale0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 5.10 | 10 | 0 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Abhishek Paradkar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Steven Taylor1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-58 (Michael Levitt, 12.1) · 2-93 (Vikramjit Singh, 19.2) · 3-103 (Musa Ahmed, 24.0) · 4-110 (Scott Edwards, 26.2) · 5-159 (Noah Croes, 37.2) · 6-177 (Kyle Klein, 41.2) · 7-198 (Aryan Dutt, 46.1) · 8-203 (Clayton Floyd, 47.4) · 9-203 (Max O'Dowd, 48.1) · 10-206 (Vivian Kingma, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 11 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 47/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 54/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 56/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 58/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 66/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 70/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 72/1 |
| 17 | 10 | 82/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 86/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 89/1 |
| 20 | 7 | 96/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 98/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 102/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 103/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 103/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 106/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 109/3 |
| 27 | 9 | 118/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 120/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 124/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 126/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 132/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 134/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 140/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 145/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 148/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 149/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 155/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 159/5 |
| 39 | 9 | 168/5 |
| 40 | 1 | 169/5 |
| 41 | 8 | 177/5 |
| 42 | 0 | 177/6 |
| 43 | 8 | 185/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 190/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 194/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 198/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 202/7 |
| 48 | 1 | 203/8 |
| 49 | 3 | 206/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 206/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.