Islamabad UnitedversusRawalpindiz

23 Apr 2026 · T20

National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rawalpindiz won by 6 wickets

Islamabad United20.0 overs137/10 Rawalpindiz18.1 overs140/4 National Stadium, Karachi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Islamabad United started on 60%; Islamabad United batted first.

Islamabad United’s chance of winning (%) · Rawalpindiz is the rest

Islamabad United's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Rawalpindiz: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.2: Mohammad Amir to Sameer Minhas, Sameer Minhas out. Rawalpindiz up from 44% to 55%.
12.1: Asif Afridi to MS Chapman, MS Chapman out. Rawalpindiz up from 66% to 76%.
2nd inns 0.1: Imad Wasim to Abdullah Fazal, Abdullah Fazal out. Islamabad United up from 21% to 32%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Islamabad United137/10 Rawalpindiz140/4

Innings 1