GuernseyversusAustria

19 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Guernsey won by 46 runs

Guernsey20.0 overs196/7 Austria17.4 overs150/10 Happy Valley Ground 2, Episkopi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

29%Guernsey71%Austria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Guernsey (1,644 vs 1,533 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Austria won 1 and Guernsey won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Guernsey started on 27%; Guernsey batted first.

Guernsey’s chance of winning (%) · Austria is the rest

Guernsey's chances ranged from 27% to 100% during the match (Austria: 0% to 73%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.4: LT Bichard to Bilal Zalmai, Bilal Zalmai out. Guernsey up from 68% to 78%.
2nd inns 2.1: LT Bichard to Amar Naeem, Amar Naeem out. Guernsey up from 79% to 91%.
2nd inns 9.4: E Robinson to I Asif, I Asif out. Guernsey up from 82% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Guernsey196/7 Austria150/10

Innings 1

Guernsey

196/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Guernsey batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Lucas Barkercaught · A Randhawa · Baseer Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Randhawa · b Baseer Khan	4	7	0	0	57.14
Josh Butlercaught · A Randhawa · Karanbir Singh 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · A Randhawa · b Karanbir Singh	68	49	5	3	138.78
Tom Nightingalecaught · A Randhawa · Bilal Zalmai 4 fours · 5 sixes	caught · A Randhawa · b Bilal Zalmai	55	25	4	5	220.00
Matthew Stokescaught · Amar Naeem · Karanbir Singh 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Amar Naeem · b Karanbir Singh	42	23	5	1	182.61
A Martelcaught · Amar Naeem · Waqar Zalmai 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amar Naeem · b Waqar Zalmai	5	4	1	0	125.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aqib Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	0
Baseer Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	0
Bilal Zalmai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0
Waqar Zalmai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	2	11.50	0
KR Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	0
Karanbir Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	30	2	15.00	0
Umair Tariq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	1	11.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	3	9/0
3	14	23/0
4	10	33/1
5	6	39/1
6	11	50/1
7	7	57/1
8	9	66/1
9	17	83/1
10	20	103/1
11	4	107/2
12	8	115/2
13	4	119/2
14	14	133/2
15	5	138/2
16	10	148/3
17	15	163/3
18	20	183/4
19	3	186/6
20	10	196/7

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