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India Women tour of South Africa · 2026 · Women
19 Apr 2026 · T20
Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 56%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (South Africa: 27% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shafali Vermacaught · Nadine de Klerk · Nonkululeko Mlaba7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 57 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 150.00 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Anne Bosch · Chloe Tryon3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anne Bosch · b Chloe Tryon | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 171.43 |
 Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Tumi Sekhukhune · Chloe Tryon0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tumi Sekhukhune · b Chloe Tryon | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Anushka Sharmacaught · Tazmin Brits · Chloe Tryon 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits |
| 28 |
| 31 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 90.32 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurrun out · Annerie Dercksen, Sinalo Jafta · Nonkululeko Mlaba1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Annerie Dercksen, Sinalo Jafta | 12 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Sinalo Jafta · Tumi Sekhukhune0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshcaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Nadine de Klerk0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Nadine de Klerk | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Arundhati Reddyrun out · Anne Bosch, Sinalo Jafta · Ayabonga Khaka 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Anne Bosch, Sinalo Jafta | 14 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Shreyanka Patillbw · Tumi Sekhukhune 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Kranti Goudcaught · Nadine de Klerk · Tumi Sekhukhune 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Shree Charaninot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 3 | 0 | 1 | 233.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tumi Sekhukhune0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 7.75 | 2 | 0 |
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 11.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 2 | 1 |
1-22 (Smriti Mandhana, 2.2) · 2-46 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 5.0) · 3-99 (Anushka Sharma, 12.4) · 4-109 (Shafali Verma, 13.4) · 5-111 (Deepti Sharma, 14.3) · 6-119 (Richa Ghosh, 16.1) · 7-127 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 18.0) · 8-128 (Shreyanka Patil, 18.2) · 9-132 (Kranti Goud, 18.5) · 10-147 (Arundhati Reddy, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 21/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 4 | 15 | 43/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 46/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 58/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 66/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 72/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 78/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 83/2 |
| 12 | 14 | 97/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 104/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 110/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 113/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 119/5 |
| 17 | 6 | 125/6 |
| 18 | 2 | 127/7 |
| 19 | 5 | 132/9 |
| 20 | 15 | 147/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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