Lucknow Super GiantsversusMumbai Indians

4 May 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Mumbai Indians won by 6 wickets

Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs228/5 Mumbai Indians18.4 overs229/4 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lucknow Super Giants started on 45%; Lucknow Super Giants batted first.

Lucknow Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Lucknow Super Giants's chances ranged from 1% to 91% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 9% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: AM Ghazanfar to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. Mumbai Indians up from 38% to 51%.
3.4: JJ Bumrah to MR Marsh, four by MR Marsh. Lucknow Super Giants up from 55% to 63%.
12.1: Raghu Sharma to Akshat Raghuwanshi, Akshat Raghuwanshi out. Mumbai Indians up from 14% to 22%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lucknow Super Giants228/5 Mumbai Indians229/4

Innings 1