**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusDurban's Super Giants

18 Jan 2024 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 17 runs

Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs204/9 Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs187/7 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 46%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · Durban's Super Giants is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Durban's Super Giants: 0% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.5: WD Parnell to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. Pretoria Capitals up from 66% to 77%.
2nd inns 7.1: WG Jacks to KR Mayers, KR Mayers out. Pretoria Capitals up from 74% to 83%.
2nd inns 7.6: WG Jacks to H Klaasen, H Klaasen out. Pretoria Capitals up from 83% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals204/9 Durban's Super Giants187/7

Innings 1