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Asia Pacific Cricket Champions Trophy · 2026 · Men
25 Jun 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Thailand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uzbekistan started on 29%; Uzbekistan batted first.
Uzbekistan's chances ranged from 0% to 32% during the match (Thailand: 68% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luqman Hussancaught · Phanuphong Thongsa · Chanchai Pengkumta 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Phanuphong Thongsa · b Chanchai Pengkumta | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| A Khakimovcaught · S Rungrueang · Nopphon Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Rungrueang · b Nopphon Senamontree | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| S Shermatovcaught · Phanuphong Thongsa · Chanchai Pengkumta 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Phanuphong Thongsa · b Chanchai Pengkumta | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Saif Ullahrun out · Austin Lazarus, Pattarapol Jirapatananukul · Pattarapol Jirapatananukul 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Austin Lazarus, Pattarapol Jirapatananukul | 15 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Nikhilbowled · Pattarapol Jirapatananukul 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pattarapol Jirapatananukul |
| 4 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Syed Ahzamul Haqcaught · Chanchai Pengkumta · Phanuphong Thongsa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chanchai Pengkumta · b Phanuphong Thongsa | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| I Mustafoevbowled · Phanuphong Thongsa 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Phanuphong Thongsa | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| A Musaevbowled · Phatummakan Donkaew 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Phatummakan Donkaew | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| O Qudratovnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| A Khasanovbowled · Phatummakan Donkaew 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Phatummakan Donkaew | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| U Tuychievbowled · Phanuphong Thongsa 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Phanuphong Thongsa | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chanchai Pengkumta0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Aruesanan Wichakam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Nopphon Senamontree0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Pattarapol Jirapatananukul0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Phanuphong Thongsa1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Phatummakan Donkaew1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Luqman Hussan, 0.2) · 2-8 (S Shermatov, 2.2) · 3-17 (A Khakimov, 6.1) · 4-32 (Saif Ullah, 7.4) · 5-33 (Nikhil, 8.0) · 6-33 (Syed Ahzamul Haq, 8.3) · 7-36 (I Mustafoev, 10.5) · 8-36 (A Musaev, 11.2) · 9-36 (A Khasanov, 11.4) · 10-37 (U Tuychiev, 12.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 17/2 |
| 7 | 11 | 28/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/5 |
| 9 | 1 | 34/6 |
| 10 | 2 | 36/6 |
| 11 | 0 | 36/7 |
| 12 | 0 | 36/9 |
| 13 | 1 | 37/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.