NorthamptonshireversusEssex

26 Jun 2026 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 130 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs238/6 Essex13.2 overs108/10 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 62%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Essex is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Essex: 0% to 39%).

Biggest swings

0.2: S Snater to R Vasconcelos, four by R Vasconcelos. Northamptonshire up from 61% to 65%.
2.2: S Snater to CA Lynn, six by CA Lynn. Northamptonshire up from 75% to 79%.
2nd inns 3.6: BW Sanderson to JM Cox, JM Cox out. Northamptonshire up from 90% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire238/6 Essex108/10

Innings 1