South AfricaversusNew Zealand

4 Mar 2026 · T20

Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 9 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs169/8 New Zealand12.5 overs173/1 Eden Gardens, Kolkata ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

58%South Africa42%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than New Zealand (1,723 vs 1,668 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 55%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (New Zealand: 40% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: CE McConchie to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. New Zealand up from 40% to 53%.
1.5: CE McConchie to RD Rickelton, RD Rickelton out. New Zealand up from 53% to 65%.
10.2: JDS Neesham to D Brevis, D Brevis out. New Zealand up from 66% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa169/8 New Zealand173/1

Innings 1

South Africa

169/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aiden Markramcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Rachin Ravindra 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Rachin Ravindra	18	20	1	1	90.00
Quinton de Kockcaught · Lockie Ferguson · Cole McConchie 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Lockie Ferguson · b Cole McConchie	10	8	1	1	125.00
Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Finn Allen · Cole McConchie 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Finn Allen · b Cole McConchie	0	1	0	0	0.00
Dewald Breviscaught · Mitchell Santner · James Neesham 3 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Matt Henry0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	7	0
Cole McConchie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	2	9.00	0	0
Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1	1
James Neesham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	42	1	14.00	1	0
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	2	0
Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	9	16/2
3	6	22/2
4	6	28/2
5	17	45/2
6	3	48/2
7	4	52/2
8	5	57/3
9	10	67/3
10	10	77/4
11	3	80/5
12	4	84/5
13	7	91/5
14	10	101/5
15	7	108/5
16	5	113/5
17	15	128/5
18	22	150/5
19	13	163/6
20	6	169/8

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