NamibiaversusZimbabwe

4 Oct 2025 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 7 wickets

Namibia20.0 overs167/6 Zimbabwe19.2 overs171/3 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

38%Namibia62%Zimbabwe

Why

Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 6 and Namibia won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Namibia (1,610 vs 1,591 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 36%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 9% to 57% during the match (Zimbabwe: 44% to 91%).

Biggest swings

0.4: R Ngarava to JN Frylinck, JN Frylinck out. Zimbabwe up from 60% to 72%.
2nd inns 3.5: B Shikongo to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. Namibia up from 34% to 46%.
2nd inns 19.2: R Trumpelmann to RP Burl, four by RP Burl. Zimbabwe up from 70% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia167/6 Zimbabwe171/3

Innings 1

Namibia

167/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Malan Krugerlbw · Ryan Burl 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ryan Burl	13	17	2	0	76.47
Jan Frylinckcaught · Brad Evans · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brad Evans · b Richard Ngarava	4	3	1	0	133.33
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Wellington Masakadza · Richard Ngarava 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wellington Masakadza · b Richard Ngarava	13	9	2	0	144.44
Louren Steenkampcaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Wellington Masakadza 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Wellington Masakadza	40	27	4	0	148.15
Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Brian Bennett · Richard Ngarava2 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	1
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	1
Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	1
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	1
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	1	8.50	2
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	30	0	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	5	11/1
3	13	24/2
4	11	35/2
5	12	47/2
6	5	52/2
7	3	55/3
8	6	61/3
9	14	75/3
10	5	80/3
11	10	90/3
12	9	99/3
13	4	103/4
14	16	119/4
15	8	127/4
16	10	137/4
17	3	140/5
18	8	148/5
19	5	153/5
20	14	167/6

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