Colombo StrikersversusKandy Falcons

18 Jul 2024 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kandy Falcons won by 2 wickets

Colombo Strikers20.0 overs159/8 Kandy Falcons18.4 overs163/8 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Colombo Strikers started on 47%; Colombo Strikers batted first.

Colombo Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Kandy Falcons is the rest

Colombo Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 92% during the match (Kandy Falcons: 8% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.6: I Wijesundera to ADS Fletcher, ADS Fletcher out. Colombo Strikers up from 58% to 73%.
2nd inns 7.4: M Pathirana to AD Mathews, AD Mathews out. Colombo Strikers up from 58% to 75%.
2nd inns 8.1: Shadab Khan to PWH de Silva, PWH de Silva out. Colombo Strikers up from 75% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Colombo Strikers159/8 Kandy Falcons163/8

Innings 1