Hobart HurricanesversusSydney Sixers

21 Jan 2025 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 12 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs173/7 Sydney Sixers20.0 overs161/5 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 46%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 47% to 100% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 1% to 53%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.4: RP Meredith to JR Philippe, JR Philippe out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 58% to 69%.
2nd inns 11.1: CJ Gannon to KR Patterson, KR Patterson out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 69% to 81%.
2nd inns 16.4: RP Meredith to L Shaw, six by L Shaw. Sydney Sixers up from 23% to 35%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes173/7 Sydney Sixers161/5

Innings 1