NamibiaversusAustralia

11 Jun 2024 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 9 wickets

Namibia17.0 overs72/10 Australia5.4 overs74/1 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

36%Namibia64%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Namibia (1,704 vs 1,606 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 32%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (Australia: 62% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: JR Hazlewood to N Davin, N Davin out. Australia up from 64% to 72%.
3.4: PJ Cummins to JN Frylinck, JN Frylinck out. Australia up from 75% to 82%.
4.1: JR Hazlewood to M van Lingen, M van Lingen out. Australia up from 83% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia72/10 Australia74/1

Innings 1

Namibia

72/1017.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael van Lingencaught · Glenn Maxwell · Josh Hazlewood 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Josh Hazlewood	10	10	2	0	100.00
Niko Davincaught · Glenn Maxwell · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Josh Hazlewood	2	7	0	0	28.57
Jan Frylinckcaught · Mitchell Marsh · Pat Cummins 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Pat Cummins	1	6	0	0	16.67
Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Glenn Maxwell · Marcus Stoinis 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Glenn Maxwell · b Marcus Stoinis	36	43	4	1	83.72
JJ Smitlbw · Nathan Ellis 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nathan Ellis	3	9	0	0	33.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	2	4.50	2
Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	2	3.00	2
Pat Cummins1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	16	1	5.33	0
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	12	4	3.00	0
Nathan Ellis1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	12	1	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	6	13/0
3	2	15/1
4	0	15/2
5	1	16/3
6	1	17/3
7	1	18/3
8	1	19/4
9	2	21/5
10	6	27/5
11	6	33/6
12	3	36/6
13	7	43/8
14	8	51/8
15	9	60/8
16	10	70/8
17	2	72/10

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