NorthamptonshireversusSomerset

18 Jul 2026 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 17 runs

Northamptonshire19.2 overs143/10 Somerset20.0 overs126/9 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 46%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Somerset is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 13% to 100% during the match (Somerset: 0% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.3: DJ Willey to L Gregory, L Gregory out. Northamptonshire up from 29% to 47%.
2nd inns 16.4: CG Harrison to T Kohler-Cadmore, T Kohler-Cadmore out. Northamptonshire up from 50% to 70%.
2nd inns 17.3: BW Sanderson to C Overton, C Overton out. Northamptonshire up from 69% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire143/10 Somerset126/9

Innings 1