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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
24 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Lesotho started on 12%; Lesotho batted first.
Lesotho's chances ranged from 0% to 13% during the match (Nigeria: 87% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM Gabriellbw · K Boniface 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b K Boniface | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Chachole Tlalibowled · Chima Akachukwu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chima Akachukwu | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 26.67 |
| M Devush Patelcaught · Selim Salau · Mohameed Taiwo 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Selim Salau · b Mohameed Taiwo | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Lebona Leokaokecaught · Vincent Adewoye · K Boniface 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vincent Adewoye · b K Boniface | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Maaz Khanbowled · E Ndubudem 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b E Ndubudem | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| bowled · b Chima Akachukwu |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Lefulere Monanthanelbw · E Ndubudem 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b E Ndubudem | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Gladwin Thamaelbw · Chima Akachukwu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chima Akachukwu | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Ts'episo Chaoananot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 26* | 18 | 3 | 1 | 144.44 |
|---|
| Tanki Alber Khetsicaught · R Abdulkareem · E Ndubudem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Abdulkareem · b E Ndubudem | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
| M Khautarun out · Selim Salau, Chima Akachukwu · E Ndubudem 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Selim Salau, Chima Akachukwu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Boniface0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter Aho0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Mohameed Taiwo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Chima Akachukwu1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2.77 | 1 | 0 |
| E Ndubudem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 3.13 | 1 | 0 |
| M Akhigbe0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 16.80 | 0 | 1 |
1-4 (LM Gabriel, 0.4) · 2-16 (M Devush Patel, 2.5) · 3-22 (Lebona Leokaoke, 4.3) · 4-24 (Chachole Tlali, 5.2) · 5-24 (Inshaf Farook, 5.3) · 6-24 (Maaz Khan, 6.4) · 7-25 (Lefulere Monanthane, 7.0) · 8-25 (Gladwin Thamae, 7.1) · 9-50 (Tanki Alber Khetsi, 11.0) · 10-62 (M Khauta, 12.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 16/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 18/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 24/3 |
| 6 | 0 | 24/5 |
| 7 | 1 | 25/7 |
| 8 | 6 | 31/8 |
| 9 | 3 | 34/8 |
| 10 | 14 | 48/8 |
| 11 | 2 | 50/9 |
| 12 | 6 | 56/9 |
| 13 | 6 | 62/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.