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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Ireland vs South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
29 Sept 2024 · T20
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 18%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 18% to 99% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 82%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paul Stirlingcaught · Ryan Rickelton · Patrick Kruger7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Patrick Kruger | 52 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 167.74 |
| Ross Adaircaught · Matthew Breetzke · Wiaan Mulder 5 fours · 9 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Wiaan Mulder | 100 | 58 | 5 | 9 | 172.41 |
 Harry Tectorbowled · Lizaad Williams0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lizaad Williams | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
 George Dockrellnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| 153.85 |
| Curtis Camphercaught · Tristan Stubbs · Wiaan Mulder 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Wiaan Mulder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Neil Rockbowled · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lungi Ngidi | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Mark Adairrun out · Ryan Rickelton, Matthew Breetzke · Patrick Kruger 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ryan Rickelton, Matthew Breetzke | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Fionn Handnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Lizaad Williams0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 1 | 1 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 12.75 | 2 | 1 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 14.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Kruger0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-137 (Paul Stirling, 13.0) · 2-156 (Harry Tector, 15.1) · 3-174 (Ross Adair, 16.4) · 4-175 (Curtis Campher, 16.5) · 5-176 (Neil Rock, 17.3) · 6-180 (Mark Adair, 18.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 14 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 39/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 13 | 59/0 |
| 7 | 15 | 74/0 |
| 8 | 11 | 85/0 |
| 9 | 13 | 98/0 |
| 10 | 12 | 110/0 |
| 11 | 14 | 124/0 |
| 12 | 7 | 131/0 |
| 13 | 6 | 137/1 |
| 14 | 13 | 150/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 156/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 163/2 |
| 17 | 13 | 176/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 179/5 |
| 19 | 8 | 187/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 195/6 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Fionn Hand: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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