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Photo: Ullaelinakarna
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Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Nordic T20 Cup · 2024 · Men
16 Jun 2024 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Finland started on 29%; Finland batted first.
Finland's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (Norway: 59% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghulam Abbas Buttcaught · Ibrahim Rahimi · Wahidullah Sahak 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rahimi · b Wahidullah Sahak | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| VS Padhaalcaught · Ibrahim Rahimi · Qamar Mushtaque 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rahimi · b Qamar Mushtaque | 46 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 117.95 |
| NM Salonencaught · AJ Parmar · Ali Saleem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AJ Parmar · b Ali Saleem | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Atif Rasheedcaught · Wahidullah Sahak · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wahidullah Sahak · b AJ Parmar | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Areeb Quadircaught · Wahidullah Sahak · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wahidullah Sahak · b AJ Parmar | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| MB Tambecaught · Wahidullah Sahak · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wahidullah Sahak · b AJ Parmar | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Amjad Shercaught · Javed Maroofkhail · D Abeyrathna 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Javed Maroofkhail · b D Abeyrathna | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Akhil Arjunancaught · Junaid Mehmood · D Abeyrathna 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Junaid Mehmood · b D Abeyrathna | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Faheem Nellanchericaught · Ibrahim Rahimi · Sher Sahak 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rahimi · b Sher Sahak | 16 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 114.29 |
|---|
| H Dandapanicaught · Qamar Mushtaque · Sher Sahak 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Qamar Mushtaque · b Sher Sahak | 17 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 89.47 |
|---|
| Parveen Kumarnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahidullah Sahak0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Sher Sahak0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ali Saleem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Parmar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Raza Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| D Abeyrathna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Ghulam Abbas Butt, 0.3) · 2-44 (NM Salonen, 5.5) · 3-51 (Atif Rasheed, 8.2) · 4-53 (Areeb Quadir, 8.5) · 5-68 (MB Tambe, 12.2) · 6-75 (Amjad Sher, 13.1) · 7-79 (Akhil Arjunan, 14.0) · 8-79 (VS Padhaal, 14.1) · 9-108 (Faheem Nellancheri, 19.1) · 10-115 (H Dandapani, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 16 | 40/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 44/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 47/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 50/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 54/4 |
| 10 | 5 | 59/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 61/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 66/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 75/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 79/7 |
| 15 | 3 | 82/8 |
| 16 | 4 | 86/8 |
| 17 | 6 | 92/8 |
| 18 | 12 | 104/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 108/8 |
| 20 | 7 | 115/10 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
