**Kingsmead, Durban**
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SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusPaarl Royals

28 Jan 2024 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 125 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs208/7 Paarl Royals13.2 overs83/10 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 53%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

1.1: L Ngidi to T de Zorzi, T de Zorzi out. Paarl Royals up from 44% to 55%.
3.5: BC Fortuin to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. Paarl Royals up from 50% to 60%.
5.4: OC McCoy to JT Smuts, JT Smuts out. Paarl Royals up from 46% to 56%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Durban's Super Giants208/7 Paarl Royals83/10

Innings 1