South AfricaversusPakistan

28 Oct 2025 · T20

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 55 runs

South Africa20.0 overs194/9 Pakistan18.1 overs139/10 Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

30%South Africa70%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than South Africa (1,646 vs 1,563 on our results rating)
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 27%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.5: LB Williams to Sahibzada Farhan, Sahibzada Farhan out. South Africa up from 33% to 47%.
2nd inns 5.3: C Bosch to Babar Azam, Babar Azam out. South Africa up from 49% to 63%.
2nd inns 10.5: GF Linde to Saim Ayub, Saim Ayub out. South Africa up from 65% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa194/9 Pakistan139/10

Innings 1

South Africa

194/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Reeza Hendricksbowled · Abrar Ahmed 5 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Abrar Ahmed	60	40	5	1	150.00
Quinton de Kockcaught · Fahim Ashraf · Saim Ayub 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Saim Ayub	23	13	5	0	176.92
Tony de Zorzistumped · Usman Khan · Mohammad Nawaz 5 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · Usman Khan · b Mohammad Nawaz	33	16	5	1	206.25
Dewald Brevisbowled · Mohammad Nawaz 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Mohammad Nawaz	9	5	0	1	180.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	1	11.25	2	0
Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	1	11.33	1	0
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	2	0
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	3	0
Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	0	0
Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	2	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	14	20/0
3	15	35/0
4	10	45/1
5	13	58/1
6	16	74/1
7	15	89/1
8	6	95/2
9	9	104/2
10	7	111/3
11	5	116/4
12	3	119/4
13	10	129/4
14	10	139/5
15	6	145/5
16	7	152/5
17	18	170/5
18	13	183/6
19	5	188/7
20	6	194/9

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