Hong KongversusKuwait

26 Feb 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 24 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs171/9 Kuwait20.0 overs147/8 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

64%Hong Kong36%Kuwait

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Kuwait (1,528 vs 1,471 on our results rating)
Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 61%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Kuwait: 0% to 85%).

Biggest swings

1.2: A Chenthamara to Anshuman Rath, Anshuman Rath out. Kuwait up from 41% to 53%.
11.1: MNM Aslam to Nizakat Khan, Nizakat Khan out. Kuwait up from 53% to 65%.
2nd inns 0.4: Yasim Murtaza to CV Anto, CV Anto out. Hong Kong up from 56% to 69%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong171/9 Kuwait147/8

Innings 1

Hong Kong

171/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zeeshan Alicaught and bowled · Mohomad Aslam 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Mohomad Aslam	33	27	6	0	122.22
Anshuman Rathrun out · Yasin Patel · Anudeep Chenthamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Yasin Patel	0	2	0	0	0.00
Babar Hayatstumped · Usman Patel · NT Rajendran 1 fours · 2 sixes	stumped · Usman Patel · b NT Rajendran	27	22	1	2	122.73
S Mathurbowled · NT Rajendran 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NT Rajendran	6	6	1	0	100.00
Yasim Murtazabowled · Anudeep Chenthamara 3 fours · 5 sixes	bowled · b Anudeep Chenthamara	60	30	3	5	200.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Muhammad Aqif Farooq0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	61	1	15.25	5
Anudeep Chenthamara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	2
Yasin Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	0
NT Rajendran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	3	3.75	0
Mohomad Aslam0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	3	9.00	5

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	5	8/1
3	14	22/1
4	5	27/1
5	12	39/1
6	7	46/1
7	7	53/1
8	10	63/2
9	4	67/3
10	11	78/3
11	3	81/4
12	3	84/6
13	1	85/7
14	12	97/7
15	17	114/7
16	5	119/7
17	27	146/7
18	3	149/7
19	3	152/8
20	19	171/9

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