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Photo: Sankarshan Mukhopadhyay from Pune, India
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized to at most 1600px wide and converted to WebP. Display crops vary; source photographs are historical.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
2 Nov 2025 · ODI
Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 65%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Sinalo Jafta · Chloe Tryon8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Chloe Tryon | 45 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 77.59 |
 Shafali Vermacaught · Suné Luus · Ayabonga Khaka7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Ayabonga Khaka | 87 | 78 | 7 | 2 | 111.54 |
 Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Ayabonga Khaka1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Ayabonga Khaka | 24 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 64.86 |
 Harmanpreet Kaur |
India's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Nonkululeko Mlaba |
| 20 |
| 29 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 68.97 |
 Deepti Sharmarun out · Sinalo Jafta, Chloe Tryon · Nadine de Klerk3 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Sinalo Jafta, Chloe Tryon | 58 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Amanjot Kaurcaught and bowled · Nadine de Klerk 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nadine de Klerk | 12 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshcaught · Annerie Dercksen · Ayabonga Khaka3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Ayabonga Khaka | 34 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 141.67 |
|---|
 Radha Yadavnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marizanne Kapp1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 59 | 0 | 5.90 | 2 | 0 |
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 58 | 3 | 6.44 | 7 | 1 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 4.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 6.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 6.57 | 0 | 0 |
1-104 (Smriti Mandhana, 17.4) · 2-166 (Shafali Verma, 27.5) · 3-171 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 29.4) · 4-223 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 39.0) · 5-245 (Amanjot Kaur, 43.1) · 6-292 (Richa Ghosh, 49.0) · 7-298 (Deepti Sharma, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 31/0 |
| 6 | 14 | 45/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 51/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 58/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 63/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 64/0 |
| 11 | 1 | 65/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 66/0 |
| 13 | 5 | 71/0 |
| 14 | 9 | 80/0 |
| 15 | 9 | 89/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 92/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 97/0 |
| 18 | 9 | 106/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 111/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 114/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 122/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 129/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 134/1 |
| 24 | 6 | 140/1 |
| 25 | 11 | 151/1 |
| 26 | 7 | 158/1 |
| 27 | 4 | 162/1 |
| 28 | 4 | 166/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 171/2 |
| 30 | 1 | 172/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 173/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 175/3 |
| 33 | 10 | 185/3 |
| 34 | 10 | 195/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 200/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 203/3 |
| 37 | 8 | 211/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 219/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 223/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 229/4 |
| 41 | 7 | 236/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 243/4 |
| 43 | 2 | 245/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 253/5 |
| 45 | 9 | 262/5 |
| 46 | 6 | 268/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 277/5 |
| 48 | 9 | 286/5 |
| 49 | 6 | 292/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 298/7 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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