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India tour of South Africa · 2023/24 · Men
3 Jan 2024 · Test
Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · b Mohammed Siraj | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Dean Elgarbowled · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Siraj | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 26.67 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · KL Rahul · Mohammed Siraj 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Mohammed Siraj | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 11.76 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Rohit Sharma · Jasprit Bumrah 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Rohit Sharma · b Jasprit Bumrah |
| 3 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 27.27 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · Mohammed Siraj 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · b Mohammed Siraj | 12 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 70.59 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnecaught · Shubman Gill · Mohammed Siraj 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubman Gill · b Mohammed Siraj | 15 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · KL Rahul · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Mohammed Siraj | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajcaught · Jasprit Bumrah · Mukesh Kumar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jasprit Bumrah · b Mukesh Kumar | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadacaught · Shreyas Iyer · Mukesh Kumar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Iyer · b Mukesh Kumar | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
| Nandre Burgercaught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · Jasprit Bumrah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · b Jasprit Bumrah | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 3.13 | 0 | 0 |
 Mohammed Siraj3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mukesh Kumar2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Aiden Markram, 3.2) · 2-8 (Dean Elgar, 5.3) · 3-11 (Tristan Stubbs, 8.3) · 4-15 (Tony de Zorzi, 9.2) · 5-34 (David Bedingham, 15.2) · 6-34 (Marco Jansen, 15.5) · 7-45 (Kyle Verreynne, 17.5) · 8-46 (Keshav Maharaj, 20.0) · 9-55 (Nandre Burger, 23.0) · 10-55 (Kagiso Rabada, 23.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 5/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 8/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 9/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 10/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 11/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 15/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 15/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 23/4 |
| 12 | 2 | 25/4 |
| 13 | 4 | 29/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 33/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 34/4 |
| 16 | 0 | 34/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 39/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 45/7 |
| 19 | 1 | 46/7 |
| 20 | 0 | 46/8 |
| 21 | 4 | 50/8 |
| 22 | 0 | 50/8 |
| 23 | 5 | 55/9 |
| 24 | 0 | 55/10 |
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Dean Elgar: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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