ScotlandversusItaly

9 Feb 2026 · T20

Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Scotland won by 73 runs

Scotland20.0 overs207/4 Italy16.4 overs134/9 Eden Gardens, Kolkata ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%Scotland50%Italy

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Italy rate stronger than Scotland (1,516 vs 1,489 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 2 and Italy won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 46%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Italy is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.1: MA Leask to J Mosca, J Mosca out. Scotland up from 66% to 79%.
2nd inns 3.1: BJ Currie to JT Smuts, JT Smuts out. Scotland up from 65% to 78%.
2nd inns 12.1: MA Leask to HJ Manenti, HJ Manenti out. Scotland up from 66% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland207/4 Italy134/9

Innings 1

Scotland

207/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Harry Manenti · Grant Stewart 13 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Harry Manenti · b Grant Stewart	84	54	13	2	155.56
Michael Jonescaught · Harry Manenti · Jon-Jon Smuts 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Harry Manenti · b Jon-Jon Smuts	37	30	1	2	123.33
Brandon McMullennot out 0 fours · 4 sixes	not out	41*	18	0	4	227.78
Richie Berringtoncaught · Gian-Piero Meade · Ali Hasan 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Gian-Piero Meade · b Ali Hasan	15	11	2	0	136.36
Tom Brucecaught · J Mosca · Thomas Draca 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Mosca · b Thomas Draca

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ali Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	0
Grant Stewart0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	1	11.00	2
Thomas Draca0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	37	1	18.50	1
Jon-Jon Smuts0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	1
Ben Manenti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	1
Harry Manenti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	1
CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	7	17/0
3	2	19/0
4	15	34/0
5	5	39/0
6	10	49/0
7	14	63/0
8	11	74/0
9	2	76/0
10	15	91/0
11	7	98/0
12	9	107/0
13	8	115/0
14	12	127/1
15	9	136/2
16	17	153/2
17	13	166/2
18	15	181/2
19	4	185/3
20	22	207/4

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