IndiaversusZimbabwe

India more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,847 vs 1,628 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
• India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

India started on 85%; India batted first.

India's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 15%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.2: R Ngarava to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. India up from 85% to 88%.
2. 2.2: TT Maposa to Abhishek Sharma, four by Abhishek Sharma. India up from 90% to 93%.
3. 3.4: B Muzarabani to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Zimbabwe up from 5% to 8%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.