Islamabad UnitedversusQuetta Gladiators

22 Feb 2024 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Quetta Gladiators won by 3 wickets

Islamabad United20.0 overs138/9 Quetta Gladiators18.2 overs139/7 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Islamabad United started on 53%; Islamabad United batted first.

Islamabad United’s chance of winning (%) · Quetta Gladiators is the rest

Islamabad United's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Quetta Gladiators: 32% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: AJ Hosein to AD Hales, AD Hales out. Quetta Gladiators up from 33% to 44%.
11.3: Abrar Ahmed to Agha Salman, Agha Salman out. Quetta Gladiators up from 62% to 73%.
2nd inns 7.1: Shadab Khan to Sarfraz Ahmed, Sarfraz Ahmed out. Islamabad United up from 18% to 33%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Islamabad United138/9 Quetta Gladiators139/7

Innings 1