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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B · 2026 · Men
10 Jul 2026 · T20
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Turkey started on 32%; Turkey batted first.
Turkey's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Norway: 60% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilyas Ataullahcaught · Khizer Ahmed · Ahmadullah Shinwari 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Ahmadullah Shinwari | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Muhammad Fahadcaught · Khizer Ahmed · Hayatullah Niazi 6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Hayatullah Niazi | 52 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 152.94 |
| I Elecrun out · Ibrahim Rahimi, Khizer Ahmed · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ibrahim Rahimi, Khizer Ahmed | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Furkan Tuskancaught · Khizer Ahmed · Hayatullah Niazi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Hayatullah Niazi | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A Turkmenbowled · Hayatullah Niazi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hayatullah Niazi | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Serdar Burak Emircaught · Sher Sahak · M Shahbaz Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sher Sahak · b M Shahbaz Butt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Ozturkbowled · Wahidullah Sahak 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Wahidullah Sahak | 17 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 94.44 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Kursad Dalyancaught · Ahmadullah Shinwari · M Shahbaz Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ahmadullah Shinwari · b M Shahbaz Butt | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mustafa Balkisrun out · Ibrahim Rahimi, Khizer Ahmed · M Shahbaz Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ibrahim Rahimi, Khizer Ahmed | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Mertcan Donmeznot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 14 | 2 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Mertcan Filizcaught · Sher Sahak · Wahidullah Sahak 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sher Sahak · b Wahidullah Sahak | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinay Ravi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Hayatullah Niazi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| M Shahbaz Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Wahidullah Sahak0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 6.55 | 1 | 0 |
1-25 (Ilyas Ataullah, 3.5) · 2-39 (I Elec, 5.3) · 3-44 (Furkan Tuskan, 6.5) · 4-59 (Muhammad Fahad, 9.0) · 5-60 (Serdar Burak Emir, 9.3) · 6-62 (A Turkmen, 10.3) · 7-64 (Ibrahim Kursad Dalyan, 11.5) · 8-68 (Mustafa Balkis, 13.2) · 9-95 (M Ozturk, 17.1) · 10-95 (Mertcan Filiz, 17.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 38/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 44/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 49/3 |
| 9 | 10 | 59/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 62/5 |
| 11 | 1 | 63/6 |
| 12 | 1 | 64/7 |
| 13 | 2 | 66/7 |
| 14 | 2 | 68/8 |
| 15 | 12 | 80/8 |
| 16 | 13 | 93/8 |
| 17 | 2 | 95/8 |
| 18 | 0 | 95/10 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
