Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

Central DistrictsversusAuckland

16 Jan 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 15 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs173/5 Auckland20.0 overs158/9 Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 39%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 27% to 100% during the match (Auckland: 1% to 73%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.5: DAJ Bracewell to GH Worker, GH Worker out. Central Districts up from 50% to 62%.
2nd inns 0.6: DAJ Bracewell to CJ Briggs, CJ Briggs out. Central Districts up from 62% to 74%.
2nd inns 14.1: BJ Small to WT O'Donnell, WT O'Donnell out. Central Districts up from 78% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts173/5 Auckland158/9

Innings 1