BangladeshversusIndia

25 Jun 2026 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 5 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs136/8 India16.5 overs139/5 Old Trafford ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

35%Bangladesh65%India

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,619 vs 1,617 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 32%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (India: 59% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Renuka Singh to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. India up from 68% to 75%.
8.5: NSS Sharma to Juairiya Ferdous, Juairiya Ferdous out. India up from 59% to 66%.
2nd inns 2.6: Marufa Akter to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. Bangladesh up from 11% to 17%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh136/8 India139/5

Innings 1

Bangladesh

136/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Shree Charani · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shree Charani · b Renuka Singh	4	8	0	0	50.00
Juairiya Ferdouscaught and bowled · Nandani Sharma 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Nandani Sharma	33	31	5	0	106.45
Sobhana Mostarycaught · Deepti Sharma · Radha Yadav 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Deepti Sharma · b Radha Yadav	22	26	2	0	84.62
Nigar Sultanastumped · Richa Ghosh · Radha Yadav 4 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Richa Ghosh · b Radha Yadav	32	27	4	0	118.52

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Shafali Verma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0	0
Renuka Singh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	4	0
Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	0	0
Nandani Sharma0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	32	1	10.67	2	1
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	0	2
Radha Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	3	7.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	5	8/1
3	4	12/1
4	10	22/1
5	10	32/1
6	8	40/1
7	7	47/1
8	4	51/1
9	8	59/2
10	4	63/2
11	6	69/2
12	6	75/2
13	4	79/3
14	17	96/3
15	4	100/3
16	6	106/3
17	5	111/4
18	9	120/5
19	13	133/6
20	3	136/8

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