Sri LankaversusScotland

7 May 2024 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 68 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs169/5 Scotland20.0 overs101/7 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

70%Sri Lanka30%Scotland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Scotland (1,670 vs 1,584 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 2 and Scotland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 68%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 65% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 35%).

Biggest swings

2.5: PA Chatterji to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. Scotland up from 26% to 32%.
5.4: K Fraser to H Madavi, H Madavi out. Scotland up from 27% to 33%.
8.4: AH Maqsood to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. Scotland up from 25% to 30%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka169/5 Scotland101/7

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

169/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Sarah Bryce · Priyanaz Chatterji 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sarah Bryce · b Priyanaz Chatterji	9	9	2	0	100.00
Chamari Atapattucaught · Darcey Carter · Rachel Slater 13 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Darcey Carter · b Rachel Slater	102	63	13	4	161.90
Harshitha Madavilbw · Katherine Fraser 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Katherine Fraser	8	8	1	0	100.00
Kavisha Dilharistumped · Sarah Bryce · Abtaha Maqsood 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Sarah Bryce

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	34	1	8.50	1	0
Rachel Slater0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	35	2	8.75	1	0
Hannah Rainey0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	31	0	7.75	2	1
Katherine Fraser1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	18	1	6.00	2	0
Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	27	1	9.00	0	0
Chloe Abel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	23	0	11.50	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	5	11/0
3	9	20/1
4	6	26/1
5	7	33/1
6	0	33/2
7	6	39/2
8	11	50/2
9	7	57/3
10	5	62/3
11	7	69/3
12	13	82/3
13	16	98/3
14	7	105/3
15	11	116/3
16	16	132/3
17	14	146/3
18	6	152/3
19	8	160/3
20	9	169/5

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