EnglandversusWest Indies

6 Jun 2025 · T20

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 21 runs

England20.0 overs188/6 West Indies20.0 overs167/9 Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

75%England25%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than West Indies (1,653 vs 1,530 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and West Indies won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 75%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

England's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 36%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.6: JG Bethell to E Lewis, E Lewis out. England up from 64% to 73%.
2nd inns 11.1: LA Dawson to SE Rutherford, SE Rutherford out. England up from 74% to 85%.
2nd inns 11.3: LA Dawson to RL Chase, RL Chase out. England up from 83% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England188/6 West Indies167/9

Innings 1

England

188/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jamie Smithcaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Romario Shepherd 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Romario Shepherd	38	20	4	2	190.00
Ben Duckettcaught · Shai Hope · Romario Shepherd 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shai Hope · b Romario Shepherd	1	4	0	0	25.00
Jos Buttlerlbw · Alzarri Joseph 6 fours · 4 sixes	lbw · b Alzarri Joseph	96	59	6	4	162.71
Harry Brookbowled · Roston Chase1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jason Holder0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	3	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	2	0
Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	51	1	12.75	4	0
Andre Russell0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	25	1	12.50	0	1
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	0	0
Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	1	9.50	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/0
2	6	22/1
3	6	28/1
4	5	33/1
5	22	55/1
6	23	78/1
7	7	85/1
8	10	95/2
9	4	99/2
10	9	108/3
11	5	113/3
12	3	116/4
13	5	121/4
14	10	131/4
15	5	136/4
16	12	148/4
17	8	156/4
18	12	168/4
19	11	179/5
20	9	188/6

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.