Melbourne RenegadesversusHobart Hurricanes

21 Nov 2024 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 22 runs

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs150/5 Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs128/8 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 41%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 0% to 78%).

Biggest swings

0.2: M Strano to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 59% to 71%.
2nd inns 0.3: MH Illingworth to L Lee, L Lee out. Melbourne Renegades up from 45% to 58%.
2nd inns 2.3: MH Illingworth to EJ Villani, NJ Carey out. Melbourne Renegades up from 58% to 69%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades150/5 Hobart Hurricanes128/8

Innings 1