IndiaversusBangladesh

28 Apr 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 44 runs

India19.5 overs145/7 Bangladesh20.0 overs101/8 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

75%India25%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,615 vs 1,443 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and Bangladesh won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 76%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 24%).

Biggest swings

2.5: Fariha Trisna to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. Bangladesh up from 18% to 23%.
2nd inns 0.3: Renuka Singh to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. India up from 86% to 91%.
2nd inns 4.1: Renuka Singh to S Mostary, S Mostary out. India up from 88% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India145/7 Bangladesh101/8

Innings 1

India

145/719.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanabowled · Fariha Trisna 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Fariha Trisna	9	9	2	0	100.00
Shafali Vermacaught · Murshida Khatun · Rabeya Khan 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Murshida Khatun · b Rabeya Khan	31	22	3	1	140.91
Yastika Bhatiacaught · Murshida Khatun · Rabeya Khan 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Murshida Khatun · b Rabeya Khan	36	29	6	0	124.14
Harmanpreet Kaurlbw · Fahima Khatun 4 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Fahima Khatun	30	22

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Marufa Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	2	4.33
Sultana Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	0	8.67
Fariha Trisna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	23	1	8.12
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	3	5.75
Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	8	17/0
3	1	18/1
4	8	26/1
5	11	37/1
6	2	39/1
7	12	51/1
8	10	61/1
9	3	64/2
10	7	71/2
11	13	84/2
12	8	92/2
13	11	103/2
14	4	107/3
15	3	110/4
16	7	117/4
17	10	127/4
18	4	131/5
19	12	143/5
20	2	145/7

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