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Asian Games Men's Qualifier · 2026 · Men
31 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 85%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 84% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 17%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Ma Qiancheng · Deng Jinqi5 fours · 16 sixes | caught · Ma Qiancheng · b Deng Jinqi | 129 | 43 | 5 | 16 | 300.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Ma Qiancheng 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ma Qiancheng | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 110.00 |
 Kushal Mallanot out8 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 85* | 47 | 8 | 5 | 180.85 |
 Rohit Kumarnot out5 fours · 7 sixes | not out | 69* | 21 | 5 | 7 | 328.57 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 5 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tian Senqun0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 10.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Luo Shilin0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 15.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Ma Qiancheng0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 12.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Zong Yuechao0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 21.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Chen Zhuo Yue0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 37.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Deng Jinqi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 12.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Aasif Sheikh, 3.1) · 2-197 (Kushal Bhurtel, 13.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 29/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 36/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 48/1 |
| 7 | 21 | 69/1 |
| 8 | 20 | 89/1 |
| 9 | 37 | 126/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 135/1 |
| 11 | 24 | 159/1 |
| 12 | 16 | 175/1 |
| 13 | 21 | 196/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 199/2 |
| 15 | 20 | 219/2 |
| 16 | 17 | 236/2 |
| 17 | 20 | 256/2 |
| 18 | 15 | 271/2 |
| 19 | 13 | 284/2 |
| 20 | 29 | 313/2 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
