St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusGuyana Amazon Warriors

7 Sept 2025 · T20

Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots won by 5 runs

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs149/6 Guyana Amazon Warriors20.0 overs144/8 Providence Stadium, Guyana ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 31%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Guyana Amazon Warriors is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 14% to 86% during the match (Guyana Amazon Warriors: 14% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.2: Waqar Salamkheil to D Pretorius, D Pretorius out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 55% to 74%.
2nd inns 18.3: JO Holder to R Shepherd, R Shepherd out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 66% to 84%.
2nd inns 19.1: Naseem Shah to KMA Paul, KMA Paul out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 62% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots149/6 Guyana Amazon Warriors144/8

Innings 1