Abu Dhabi Knight RidersversusDubai Capitals

26 Jan 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Dubai Capitals won by 8 wickets

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders20.0 overs203/4 Dubai Capitals19.5 overs207/2 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders started on 44%; Abu Dhabi Knight Riders batted first.

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Dubai Capitals is the rest

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders's chances ranged from 4% to 91% during the match (Dubai Capitals: 9% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.5: Ali Khan to Gulbadin Naib, six by Gulbadin Naib. Dubai Capitals up from 56% to 68%.
2nd inns 16.5: Ibrar Ahmad to Gulbadin Naib, six by Gulbadin Naib. Dubai Capitals up from 67% to 80%.
2nd inns 18.5: AD Russell to MD Shanaka, six by MD Shanaka. Dubai Capitals up from 71% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders203/4 Dubai Capitals207/2

Innings 1