South KoreaversusChina

13 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

China won by 10 wickets

South Korea15.4 overs40/10 China9.1 overs43/0 Yeonhui Cricket Ground, Incheon ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

China more likely to win

36%South Korea64%China

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, China rate stronger than South Korea (1,394 vs 1,298 on our results rating)
South Korea are playing at home in South Korea
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, China won 1 and South Korea won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Korea started on 36%; South Korea batted first.

South Korea’s chance of winning (%) · China is the rest

South Korea's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (China: 63% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Xu Qian to Sinae Kim, Sinae Kim out. China up from 64% to 73%.
2.1: Xu Qian to Seungmin Song, Seungmin Song out. China up from 76% to 81%.
5.3: Mengting Liu to Hyejin Park, Hyejin Park out. China up from 88% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Korea40/10 China43/0

Innings 1

South Korea

40/1015.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Korea batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sinae Kimbowled · Xu Qian 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Xu Qian	0	2	0	0	0.00
Seri Changstumped · Zi Mei · Cai Yuzhi 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Zi Mei · b Cai Yuzhi	8	24	0	0	33.33
Seungmin Songbowled · Xu Qian 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Xu Qian	0	5	0	0	0.00
Jiyeon Parkcaught · Cai Yuzhi · Mengting Liu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Cai Yuzhi · b Mengting Liu	2	6	0	0	33.33
Hyejin Parkbowled · Mengting Liu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mengting Liu	1	8	0	0	12.50
Hee Jung Leebowled · Mengting Liu0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Xu Qian2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	5	3	1.25	2	0
Mengting Liu2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	2	1	4	0.27	0	0
Wang Huiying0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	15	0	5.00	4	1
Cai Yuzhi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	1	3.00	1	0
Ma Ruike0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	1	2.50	2	0
Gong Yuting0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	0	0/1
3	4	4/2
4	1	5/3
5	2	7/3
6	0	7/5
7	6	13/5
8	5	18/5
9	7	25/6
10	1	26/7
11	1	27/7
12	3	30/7
13	6	36/7
14	3	39/8
15	0	39/9
16	1	40/10

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