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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
2 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 61%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtbowled · Malki Madara1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Malki Madara | 10 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 47.62 |
| Tazmin Britsbowled · Sugandika Kumari 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sugandika Kumari | 14 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Lara Goodallcaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Dewmi Vihanga 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Dewmi Vihanga | 46 | 63 | 5 | 0 | 73.02 |
| Karabo Mesocaught · Chamari Atapattu · Inoka Ranaweera 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chamari Atapattu · b Inoka Ranaweera | 9 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Suné Luusbowled · Dewmi Vihanga 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dewmi Vihanga |
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (Sri Lanka: 24% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 31 |
| 39 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 79.49 |
 Chloe Tryoncaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Dewmi Vihanga4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Dewmi Vihanga | 35 | 40 | 4 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Annerie Dercksennot out 4 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 61* | 60 | 4 | 1 | 101.67 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerkbowled · Malki Madara 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Malki Madara | 17 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 68.00 |
|---|
| Masabata Klaascaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Malki Madara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Malki Madara | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Nonkululeko Mlabacaught and bowled · Malki Madara0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Malki Madara | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Ayabonga Khakanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 4 | 5.00 | 2 | 1 |
 Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Dewmi Vihanga1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 4.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 3.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Tazmin Brits, 3.4) · 2-27 (Laura Wolvaardt, 7.0) · 3-59 (Karabo Meso, 16.3) · 4-113 (Lara Goodall, 26.4) · 5-120 (Suné Luus, 28.5) · 6-182 (Chloe Tryon, 39.1) · 7-214 (Nadine de Klerk, 46.3) · 8-228 (Masabata Klaas, 48.4) · 9-228 (Nonkululeko Mlaba, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 27/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 32/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 40/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 49/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 51/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 54/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 56/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 56/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 59/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 60/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 63/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 70/3 |
| 20 | 8 | 78/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 82/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 89/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 96/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 100/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 105/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 112/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 114/4 |
| 28 | 5 | 119/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 121/5 |
| 30 | 9 | 130/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 134/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 139/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 143/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 148/5 |
| 35 | 12 | 160/5 |
| 36 | 11 | 171/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 173/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 178/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 182/5 |
| 40 | 0 | 182/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 186/6 |
| 42 | 9 | 195/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 197/6 |
| 44 | 9 | 206/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 209/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 212/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 216/7 |
| 48 | 10 | 226/7 |
| 49 | 2 | 228/9 |
| 50 | 7 | 235/9 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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