IndonesiaversusMalaysia

5 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 5 wickets

Indonesia20.0 overs73/9 Malaysia15.1 overs74/5 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

8%Indonesia92%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Indonesia (1,656 vs 1,373 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 4 and Indonesia won 0
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 8%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 0% to 8% during the match (Malaysia: 92% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Pavandeep Singh to KD Kesuma, KD Kesuma out. Malaysia up from 92% to 94%.
5.2: Pavandeep Singh to GA Priandana, GA Priandana out. Malaysia up from 95% to 96%.
5.5: Pavandeep Singh to GD Arta, GD Arta out. Malaysia up from 97% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia73/9 Malaysia74/5

Innings 1

Indonesia

73/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Indonesia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Gede Priandanacaught · Amir Khan · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amir Khan · b Pavandeep Singh	7	18	0	0	38.89
Dharma Kesumacaught and bowled · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Pavandeep Singh	0	4	0	0	0.00
Kavin Chaddhacaught · Muhamad Syahadat · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhamad Syahadat · b Pavandeep Singh	4	15	0	0	26.67
Gede Artacaught · Zubaidi Zulkifle · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zubaidi Zulkifle · b Pavandeep Singh	0	3	0	0	0.00
Kadek Gamantikanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes	not out	32*	36	2	0	88.89

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Syed Aziz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	1	4.00	1
Pavandeep Singh2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	3	4	0.75	0
Azri Azhar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	0.4	0	3	0	4.50	1
Amir Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	1	3.75	5
Rahim Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	3	4.00	0
Muhammad Amir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	0	6.50	0
Vijay Unni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	0	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	1	5/1
3	5	10/1
4	0	10/1
5	3	13/1
6	0	13/3
7	4	17/3
8	2	19/4
9	7	26/4
10	2	28/4
11	3	31/5
12	1	32/6
13	3	35/7
14	8	43/7
15	3	46/8
16	6	52/8
17	7	59/8
18	8	67/8
19	1	68/8
20	5	73/9

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