Sydney SixersversusMelbourne Stars

3 Dec 2025 · T20

Drummoyne Oval, Sydney · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 16 runs

Sydney Sixers20.0 overs164/5 Melbourne Stars20.0 overs148/8 Drummoyne Oval, Sydney ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Sixers started on 49%; Sydney Sixers batted first.

Sydney Sixers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Sydney Sixers's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 0% to 59%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: L Cheatle to R McKenna, R McKenna out. Sydney Sixers up from 67% to 78%.
2nd inns 15.1: A Gardner to KJ Garth, KJ Garth out. Sydney Sixers up from 70% to 83%.
2nd inns 17.2: MK Villiers to ME Bouchier, ME Bouchier out. Sydney Sixers up from 77% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sydney Sixers164/5 Melbourne Stars148/8

Innings 1

Sydney Sixers

164/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sydney Sixers batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ellyse Perryrun out · Amy Jones, Sasha Moloney · Kim Garth 0 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Amy Jones, Sasha Moloney	7	7	0	1	100.00
Sophia Dunkleyrun out · Meg Lanning, Amy Jones · Kim Garth 4 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Meg Lanning, Amy Jones	41	37	4	0	110.81
Alyssa Healycaught · Maisy Gibson · Sophie Day 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Maisy Gibson · b Sophie Day	20	23	2	0	86.96

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Rhys McKenna1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	22	0	7.33	2
Kim Garth1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	28	1	7.00	0
Sophie Day0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	2	6.75	4
Georgia Prestwidge0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	34	0	8.50	0
Maisy Gibson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	29	0	9.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	0	13/1
3	0	13/1
4	11	24/1
5	5	29/1
6	8	37/1
7	6	43/1
8	13	56/1
9	5	61/2
10	9	70/2
11	8	78/2
12	4	82/2
13	13	95/2
14	9	104/2
15	12	116/3
16	15	131/3
17	8	139/3
18	4	143/4
19	8	151/4
20	13	164/5

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Sydney SixersversusMelbourne Stars

Sydney Sixers won by 16 runs

How the win chances moved

Biggest swings

Sydney Sixers

Fall of wickets