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Photo: Gihan Jayaweera
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
16 Feb 2026 · T20
Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 66%; Australia batted first.
Australia's chances ranged from 0% to 95% during the match (Sri Lanka: 5% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshlbw · Dushan Hemantha8 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Dushan Hemantha | 54 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 200.00 |
 Travis Headcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dushan Hemantha7 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dushan Hemantha | 56 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 193.10 |
 Cameron Greenstumped · Kusal Mendis · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Tim Davidcaught · Dushan Hemantha · Kamindu Mendis 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dushan Hemantha · b Kamindu Mendis |
| 6 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 120.00 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Dunith Wellalage · Dushmantha Chameera3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Dushmantha Chameera | 27 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 122.73 |
|---|
 Glenn Maxwellcaught · Pathum Nissanka · Dushan Hemantha1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Dushan Hemantha | 22 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 146.67 |
|---|
 Marcus Stoiniscaught · Mahesh Theekshana · Dushmantha Chameera0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahesh Theekshana · b Dushmantha Chameera | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Cooper Connollycaught · Kushal Janith Perera · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kushal Janith Perera · b Mahesh Theekshana | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettrun out · Kusal Mendis · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Adam Zamparun out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis · Dushmantha Chameera0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 9.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushan Hemantha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-104 (Travis Head, 8.3) · 2-110 (Cameron Green, 10.0) · 3-116 (Mitchell Marsh, 10.4) · 4-130 (Tim David, 12.4) · 5-160 (Glenn Maxwell, 16.1) · 6-174 (Josh Inglis, 17.5) · 7-177 (Cooper Connolly, 18.3) · 8-180 (Marcus Stoinis, 19.3) · 9-180 (Xavier Bartlett, 19.5) · 10-181 (Adam Zampa, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 50/0 |
| 6 | 20 | 70/0 |
| 7 | 14 | 84/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 97/0 |
| 9 | 8 | 105/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 110/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 117/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 127/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 131/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 136/4 |
| 15 | 15 | 151/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 160/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 168/5 |
| 18 | 7 | 175/6 |
| 19 | 2 | 177/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 181/10 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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