IrelandversusBangladesh

2 Dec 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 8 wickets

Ireland19.5 overs117/10 Bangladesh13.4 overs119/2 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

35%Ireland65%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Ireland (1,499 vs 1,449 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 4 and Ireland won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 34%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Bangladesh: 47% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: Shoriful Islam to TH Tector, TH Tector out. Bangladesh up from 47% to 57%.
5.2: Mustafizur Rahman to HT Tector, HT Tector out. Bangladesh up from 52% to 61%.
6.1: Mahedi Hasan to L Tucker, L Tucker out. Bangladesh up from 63% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland117/10 Bangladesh119/2

Innings 1

Ireland

117/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Paul Stirlingcaught · Saif Hassan · Rishad Hossain 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Saif Hassan · b Rishad Hossain	38	27	5	1	140.74
Tim Tectorbowled · Shariful Islam 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Shariful Islam	17	10	2	1	170.00
Harry Tectorbowled · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mustafizur Rahman	5	6	1	0	83.33
Lorcan Tuckerlbw · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Mahedi Hasan	1	5	0	0	20.00
Curtis Campherbowled · Rishad Hossain0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	2	7.00	0
Mohammad Saifuddin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	31	1	8.09	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	11	3	3.67	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	3	5.25	0
Saif Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	0	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	4	17/0
3	7	24/0
4	14	38/1
5	12	50/1
6	1	51/2
7	4	55/3
8	2	57/3
9	5	62/3
10	4	66/4
11	2	68/4
12	6	74/5
13	4	78/5
14	8	86/5
15	4	90/5
16	9	99/6
17	9	108/6
18	2	110/8
19	4	114/9
20	3	117/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.