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West Indies Women tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Women
21 Jun 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 51%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Aaliyah Alleyne · Karishma Ramharack 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaliyah Alleyne · b Karishma Ramharack | 44 | 60 | 6 | 0 | 73.33 |
 Chamari Atapattubowled · Afy Fletcher10 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Afy Fletcher | 91 | 106 | 10 | 2 | 85.85 |
 Harshitha Madavilbw · Karishma Ramharack0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Karishma Ramharack | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Hansima Karunaratnerun out · Afy Fletcher · Afy Fletcher 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Afy Fletcher | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 50%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Qiana Joseph |
| 63 |
| 78 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 80.77 |
 Anushka Sanjeewanirun out · Qiana Joseph · Qiana Joseph6 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Qiana Joseph | 55 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 119.57 |
|---|
| Oshadi Ranasinghenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Sachini Nisansalanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shamilia Connell0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 5.67 | 4 | 0 |
 Chinelle Henry2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 7.13 | 1 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 4.60 | 3 | 0 |
| Qiana Joseph0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 6.67 | 2 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 3 | 0 |
 Stafanie Taylor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-93 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 19.3) · 2-95 (Harshitha Madavi, 20.0) · 3-99 (Hansima Karunaratne, 22.3) · 4-156 (Chamari Atapattu, 34.1) · 5-273 (Anushka Sanjeewani, 49.4) · 6-273 (Nilakshi de Silva, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 25/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 25/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 34/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 40/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 48/0 |
| 12 | 7 | 55/0 |
| 13 | 2 | 57/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 63/0 |
| 15 | 4 | 67/0 |
| 16 | 1 | 68/0 |
| 17 | 7 | 75/0 |
| 18 | 7 | 82/0 |
| 19 | 9 | 91/0 |
| 20 | 4 | 95/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 96/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 97/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 103/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 105/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 106/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 108/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 110/3 |
| 28 | 10 | 120/3 |
| 29 | 9 | 129/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 135/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 138/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 145/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 151/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 156/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 158/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 162/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 169/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 172/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 175/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 180/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 184/4 |
| 42 | 4 | 188/4 |
| 43 | 11 | 199/4 |
| 44 | 13 | 212/4 |
| 45 | 6 | 218/4 |
| 46 | 18 | 236/4 |
| 47 | 5 | 241/4 |
| 48 | 13 | 254/4 |
| 49 | 16 | 270/4 |
| 50 | 5 | 275/6 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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